Tacuaryvs
Independiente F.b.c.
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Intermedia · 10/20/2026, 10:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Independiente F.b.c. · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tacuary 3-2 Independiente F.b.c.
Original prediction
Independiente F.b.c.
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 October 2026 at 08:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.52 | 25.4% | 23.2% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 28.5% | 24.3% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 1.94 | 46.1% | 52.5% | 6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Independiente F.b.c.
Probability
52.5%
Model confidence
52.5%
Independiente F.b.c. has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00