Tacuaryvs
Benjamín Aceval
COMPLETEDParaguay · Division Intermedia · 9/26/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Benjamín Aceval · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tacuary 2-1 Benjamín Aceval
Original prediction
Benjamín Aceval
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 18:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.04 | 29.2% | 28.3% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 25.3% | 28.4% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 1.95 | 45.5% | 43.2% | -2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–211%
Predicted outcome
Benjamín Aceval
Probability
43.2%
Model confidence
43.2%
Benjamín Aceval has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60