Tacoma Defiancevs
Portland Timbers II
COMPLETEDUSA · MLS Next Pro · 9/20/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Portland Timbers II · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Tacoma Defiance 1-1 Portland Timbers II
Original prediction
Portland Timbers II
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 40.5% | 32.3% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.4% | 25.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 34.1% | 42.6% | 8.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.54 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Portland Timbers II
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Portland Timbers II has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80