NB IINB II
Saturday, 1 August 202618:00Updated today
Szeged 2011

Szeged 2011

Home
L
vs
18:00
BVSC

BVSC

Away
W
Szent Gellert Forum
GoalVio prediction
38% confidence
Szeged 2011(38%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Szeged 2011
38%
Draw
28%
BVSC
34%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Szeged 2011
9
BVSC
99
Defence
Szeged 2011
66
BVSC
66
Momentum
Szeged 2011
0
BVSC
100
Danger (xG)
Szeged 2011
0.00
BVSC
3.60
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.43 xG for Szeged 2011 and 1.27 xG for BVSC. BVSC's projected xG of 1.27 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.70 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Szeged 2011's Defensive Stability (66) and BVSC's (66) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Szeged 2011)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (BVSC)
3.60
avg per match
xG against (Szeged 2011)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (BVSC)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Szeged 2011Szeged 2011
L
BVSCBVSC
W

Probability breakdown

38% confidence
Szeged 201138%
Draw28%
BVSC34%

Szeged 2011 leads with 38% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Szeged 2011 Narrow Edge — Model Projects 1-0

Szeged 2011 take on BVSC in NB II.

Key factors

: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Szeged 2011's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 53% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk BVSC have won 1 of their last 5 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Szeged 2011 carry the stronger underlying metrics, BVSC's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Szeged 2011 hold a slim but consistent edge across the key input metrics. No single factor clears the threshold required to claim a material advantage, but chance quality, defensive organisation, and recent form all point in the same direction — and when multiple independent signals align, that convergence is the model's case for Szeged 2011.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Szeged 2011, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If BVSC score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.16 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Szeged 2011

Szeged 2011

L
vs Csakvar
17 May 2026
01
BVSC

BVSC

W
vs Budapest Honved
17 May 2026
41

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Szeged 2011 vs BVSC?

GoalVio's model predicts Szeged 2011 to win with 38% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Szeged 2011 vs BVSC?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Szeged 2011 vs BVSC?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Szeged 2011 vs BVSC?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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