Sydneyvs
Melbourne Victory
COMPLETEDAustralia · Australia Cup · 9/9/2026, 9:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sydney · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sydney 0-2 Melbourne Victory
Original prediction
Sydney
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.03 | 45.3% | 45.6% | 0.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 26.6% | 25.0% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 28.1% | 29.4% | 1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Sydney
Probability
45.6%
Model confidence
45.6%
Sydney has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SydneyWWDWD
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
Melbourne VictoryWDWWW
GF 10 · GA 1 · avg 2.00/0.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
SydneyMelbourne Victory
100.0Attack66.7
66.7Defence88.9
100.0Form77.8
89.2Power76.6
2.15xG1.53