Sydneyvs
Adelaide United
COMPLETEDAustralia · A-League · 10/25/2026, 4:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sydney · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sydney 2-1 Adelaide United
Original prediction
Sydney
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 12:48 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 42.8% | 39.2% | -3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.56 | 26.3% | 27.6% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 3.03 | 30.9% | 33.3% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sydney
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Sydney has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SydneyDLWWD
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Adelaide UnitedWWLWL
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
SydneyAdelaide United
0.0Attack50.0
100.0Defence50.0
33.3Form50.0
45.3Power50.0
1.57xG1.39