Sydney Unitedvs
Canberra FC
COMPLETEDAustralia · Australian Championship · 10/18/2026, 4:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sydney United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sydney United 1-1 Canberra FC
Original prediction
Sydney United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 23 September 2026 at 00:28 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 72.5% | 47.1% | -25.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.34 | 17.3% | 25.4% | 8.1 pts |
| Away | 9.09 | 10.2% | 27.5% | 17.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 4.34 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-25.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sydney United
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Sydney United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60
GF 17 · GA 6 · avg 3.40/1.20