Switzerlandvs
Slovenia
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/3/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Switzerland · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Switzerland 2-1 Slovenia
Original prediction
Switzerland
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.26 | 75.2% | 52.8% | -22.5 pts |
| Draw | 5.53 | 17.1% | 25.2% | 8.1 pts |
| Away | 12.33 | 7.7% | 22.0% | 14.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.26 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Switzerland
Probability
52.8%
Model confidence
52.8%
Switzerland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00