Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swit · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Swit 3-0 Troszyn
Original prediction
Swit
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.57 | 57.6% | 45.8% | -11.7 pts |
| Draw | 4.15 | 21.8% | 26.2% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 4.38 | 20.7% | 28.0% | 7.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.57 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Swit
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Swit has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SwitWLWWW
GF 15 · GA 11 · avg 3.00/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
TroszynDWLDL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
SwitTroszyn
41.7Attack33.3
83.3Defence66.7
41.7Form33.3
54.1Power45.3
1.61xG1.16