Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swit · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Swit 4-0 Łomża
Original prediction
Swit
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.84 | 49.0% | 42.9% | -6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.7% | 26.9% | 3.2 pts |
| Away | 3.32 | 27.2% | 30.2% | 2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Swit
Probability
42.9%
Model confidence
42.9%
Swit has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SwitLWDLD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ŁomżaLLDDL
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
SwitŁomża
11.1Attack66.7
77.8Defence0.0
22.2Form0.0
40.2Power23.7
1.68xG1.25