GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 1/14/2025, 7:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Birmingham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 0-3

Highconfidence

Swindon Town are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DLWDD), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Birmingham are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDDWW), averaging 1.40 scored and 0.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Birmingham hold a 56.1-point power-rating edge (18.5 v 74.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-3 the most likely exact scoreline at 76.1% in the EFL Trophy, while Birmingham holds the strongest overall chance at 76% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 73% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Birmingham

Probability

76.1%

Model confidence

76.1%

Birmingham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Swindon TownDLWDD

GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 1/5
BirminghamWDDWW

GF 7 · GA 1 · avg 1.40/0.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Swindon TownBirmingham
22.2Attack79.2
11.1Defence70.8
11.1Form79.2
18.5Power74.6
0.89xG3.04
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