GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 8/22/2023, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Arsenal U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-2

Highconfidence

Swindon Town are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DWDDW), averaging 2.60 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Arsenal U21 are 0W-0D-1L in their last 1 (L), averaging 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 6 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Arsenal U21 hold a 21.3-point power-rating edge (18.5 v 39.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.8% in the EFL Trophy, while Arsenal U21 holds the strongest overall chance at 46% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 77% BTTS chance and 78% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Arsenal U21

Probability

45.8%

Model confidence

45.8%

Arsenal U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Swindon TownDWDDW

GF 13 · GA 10 · avg 2.60/2.00

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Arsenal U21L

GF 1 · GA 2 · avg 1.00/2.00

BTTS 1/1O2.5 1/1
Swindon TownArsenal U21
22.2Attack75.0
11.1Defence16.7
11.1Form33.3
18.5Power39.7
1.86xG2.34
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