Swindon Supermarinevs
Winslow United
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/7/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swindon Supermarine · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Swindon Supermarine 3-1 Winslow United
Original prediction
Swindon Supermarine
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 55.8% | 43.4% | -12.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.21 | 21.7% | 26.1% | 4.4 pts |
| Away | 4.05 | 22.5% | 30.6% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Swindon Supermarine
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Swindon Supermarine has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 1.50/1.50