Swieqi Unitedvs
Sirens
COMPLETEDMalta · Challenge League · 10/18/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swieqi United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Swieqi United 3-2 Sirens
Original prediction
Swieqi United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:30 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 55.3% | 44.2% | -11.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 23.6% | 25.4% | 1.8 pts |
| Away | 4.26 | 21.1% | 30.3% | 9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Swieqi United
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
Swieqi United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20