Swieqi Unitedvs
Pietà Hotspurs
COMPLETEDMalta · Challenge League · 9/18/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Swieqi United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Swieqi United 3-2 Pietà Hotspurs
Original prediction
Swieqi United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.0% | 38.7% | -11.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 24.5% | 26.1% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.52 | 25.5% | 35.2% | 9.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Swieqi United
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Swieqi United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 15 · GA 9 · avg 3.00/1.80