The model projects 2.82 xG for Sweden and 0.90 xG for Tunisia. Tunisia's projected xG of 0.90 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 2-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. The xG distribution suggests Sweden will score, but Tunisia's attacking output falls below the threshold the model requires to project both teams scoring.Sweden's defensive record — 0 clean sheets in 10 matches — combined with Tunisia's limited attacking output (2 clean sheets conceded in 10 games) supports the model's projection of at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

The model projects a combined xG of 3.73 — high attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 2-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.