Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sweden · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sweden 2-1 Romania
Original prediction
Sweden
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.44 | 65.2% | 45.9% | -19.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.62 | 20.3% | 24.9% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 6.50 | 14.4% | 29.2% | 14.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Sweden
Probability
45.9%
Model confidence
45.9%
Sweden has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SwedenDLWWW
GF 14 · GA 9 · avg 2.80/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
RomaniaWDLWL
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SwedenRomania
100.0Attack100.0
77.8Defence83.3
88.9Form100.0
86.2Power94.3
1.42xG1.27