Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sweden · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sweden 3-1 Poland
Original prediction
Sweden
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 46.8% | 43.9% | -2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 25.8% | 28.0% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 3.44 | 27.5% | 28.1% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Sweden
Probability
43.9%
Model confidence
43.9%
Sweden has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SwedenWDLWW
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
PolandDDLWW
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
SwedenPoland
66.7Attack0.0
66.7Defence100.0
100.0Form33.3
80.3Power45.3
1.44xG0.92