Sweden U21vs
North Macedonia U21
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · 10/5/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sweden U21 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sweden U21 2-0 North Macedonia U21
Original prediction
Sweden U21
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 18:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.25 | 73.1% | 51.4% | -21.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.32 | 17.2% | 21.7% | 4.5 pts |
| Away | 9.39 | 9.7% | 26.9% | 17.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.25 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-21.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sweden U21
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Sweden U21 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40
GF 2 · GA 11 · avg 0.40/2.20