Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kolín · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Svitavy 1-3 Kolín
Original prediction
Kolín
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.63 | 34.3% | 36.6% | 2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 23.7% | 24.6% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.15 | 42.0% | 38.8% | -3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Kolín
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Kolín has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SvitavyLLLWL
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
KolínLDDDL
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SvitavyKolín
33.3Attack33.3
8.3Defence33.3
25.0Form25.0
25.2Power33.2
1.72xG1.73