Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SV Meppen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SV Meppen 1-1 Havelse
Original prediction
SV Meppen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 55.1% | 55.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.02 | 22.4% | 20.5% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 4.02 | 22.4% | 24.5% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.02 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
SV Meppen
Probability
55.0%
Model confidence
55.0%
SV Meppen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SV MeppenWDLLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
HavelseDLLLL
GF 5 · GA 16 · avg 1.00/3.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
SV MeppenHavelse
40.7Attack44.4
40.7Defence18.5
37.0Form18.5
40.3Power30.0
2.20xG1.41