SV Elversbergvs
FC Augsburg
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 10/17/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Augsburg · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SV Elversberg 4-3 FC Augsburg
Original prediction
FC Augsburg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.45 | 38.8% | 35.3% | -3.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.76 | 25.3% | 23.5% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 2.65 | 35.9% | 41.2% | 5.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
FC Augsburg
Probability
41.2%
Model confidence
41.2%
FC Augsburg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00