SV Elversbergvs
Bayern München
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 9/13/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bayern München · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SV Elversberg 1-2 Bayern München
Original prediction
Bayern München
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 14.08 | 6.8% | 30.3% | 23.5 pts |
| Draw | 8.93 | 10.7% | 21.6% | 10.9 pts |
| Away | 1.15 | 82.6% | 48.1% | -34.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-34.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Bayern München
Probability
48.1%
Model confidence
48.1%
Bayern München has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 8 · avg 3.00/1.60
GF 16 · GA 3 · avg 3.20/0.60