SV Elversbergvs
Bayer Leverkusen
COMPLETEDGermany · Bundesliga · 8/29/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bayer Leverkusen · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (11%), 0-3 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SV Elversberg 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen
Original prediction
Bayer Leverkusen
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.05 | 18.8% | 18.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.40 | 21.6% | 21.0% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 1.59 | 59.7% | 60.8% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–211%
- 2.0–311%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Bayer Leverkusen
Probability
60.8%
Model confidence
60.8%
Bayer Leverkusen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 5 · avg 2.80/1.00
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80