SV Darmstadt 98vs
FC St. Pauli
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 10/23/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC St. Pauli · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 0-2 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SV Darmstadt 98 0-0 FC St. Pauli
Original prediction
FC St. Pauli
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 06:35 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.94 | 31.7% | 22.0% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 27.5% | 23.1% | -4.4 pts |
| Away | 2.27 | 40.9% | 54.9% | 14.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.39 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.0–211%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
FC St. Pauli
Probability
54.9%
Model confidence
54.9%
FC St. Pauli has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60