SV Darmstadt 98vs
Arminia Bielefeld
COMPLETEDGermany · 2. Bundesliga · 9/11/2026, 4:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Arminia Bielefeld · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld
Original prediction
Arminia Bielefeld
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 33.2% | 33.9% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.58 | 26.1% | 25.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 2.29 | 40.7% | 40.7% | 0.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Arminia Bielefeld
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Arminia Bielefeld has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00