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Sunday, 28 June 2026Last updated 10:10
Suzhou Dongwu

Suzhou Dongwu

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12
Full time
Ningbo Professional

Ningbo Professional

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WW
Suzhou Sports Centre
GoalVio prediction
45% confidence
Ningbo Professional(45%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Prediction correct— Result: Ningbo Professional
Win probability
Suzhou Dongwu
27%
Draw
28%
Ningbo Professional
45%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Suzhou Dongwu
9
Ningbo Professional
54
Defence
Suzhou Dongwu
91
Ningbo Professional
82
Momentum
Suzhou Dongwu
33
Ningbo Professional
100
Danger (xG)
Suzhou Dongwu
0.00
Ningbo Professional
1.35
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 0.95 xG for Suzhou Dongwu and 2.11 xG for Ningbo Professional. Suzhou Dongwu's projected xG of 0.95 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-2 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. The xG distribution suggests Ningbo Professional will score, but Suzhou Dongwu's attacking output falls below the threshold the model requires to project both teams scoring.Ningbo Professional's Defensive Stability Score (82) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (9). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 3.06 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-2 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Suzhou Dongwu's Defensive Stability (91) and Ningbo Professional's (82) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Suzhou Dongwu)
0.00
avg per match
xG for (Ningbo Professional)
1.35
avg per match
xG against (Suzhou Dongwu)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Ningbo Professional)
0.45
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Suzhou DongwuSuzhou Dongwu
DLW
Ningbo ProfessionalNingbo Professional
WWWW

Probability breakdown

45% confidence
Suzhou Dongwu27%
Draw28%
Ningbo Professional45%

Ningbo Professional leads with 45% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Ningbo Professional Backed to Win — Model Projects 0-1

Suzhou Dongwu host Ningbo Professional in League One. Suzhou Dongwu have recorded LLDLDD in recent matches while Ningbo Professional arrive with a run of LWWWWL. These sides have met 1 times recently, averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.11 expected goals for Ningbo Professional against 0.95 for Suzhou Dongwu — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 📈 Recent Form Ningbo Professional arrive in better recent form — 4 wins from 10 matches (LWWWWL) against Suzhou Dongwu's 0. Form over the last 5–6 games is one of the most predictive short-term signals in the model, capturing momentum that longer-term averages can miss.
: ⚽ Attacking Efficiency Suzhou Dongwu have averaged 0.85 goals per game recently while Ningbo Professional have managed 1.32. Ningbo Professional have been the more prolific side — a factor the model weighs in its Ningbo Professional win projection.

Why GoalVio backs this

Ningbo Professional are generating a commanding xG advantage — 2.11 projected against 0.95 for Suzhou Dongwu. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.17 is the clearest signal in the model that Ningbo Professional are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Ningbo Professional are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Head to head

Suzhou Dongwu 0Draws 01 Ningbo Professional
Avg goals: 3.0BTTS in 1/1
28 Jun 2026
Suzhou Dongwu
L12
Ningbo Professional

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Frequently asked questions

Who will win Suzhou Dongwu vs Ningbo Professional?

GoalVio's model predicts Ningbo Professional to win with 45% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Suzhou Dongwu vs Ningbo Professional?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Suzhou Dongwu vs Ningbo Professional?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Suzhou Dongwu vs Ningbo Professional?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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