Suzhou Dongwuvs
Dongguan United
COMPLETEDChina · League One · 9/12/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Suzhou Dongwu · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (15%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Suzhou Dongwu 3-2 Dongguan United
Original prediction
Suzhou Dongwu
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 58.1% | 59.7% | 1.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.68 | 24.4% | 23.4% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 5.15 | 17.4% | 17.0% | -0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–015%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–013%
Predicted outcome
Suzhou Dongwu
Probability
59.7%
Model confidence
59.7%
Suzhou Dongwu has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60