WK-LeagueWK-League
Friday, 31 July 202611:00Updated today
Suwon FMC W

Suwon FMC W

Home
DW
vs
11:00
Gumi Sportstoto W

Gumi Sportstoto W

Away
L
GoalVio prediction
49% confidence
Suwon FMC W(49%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Win probability
Suwon FMC W
49%
Draw
26%
Gumi Sportstoto W
24%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Suwon FMC W
54
Gumi Sportstoto W
9
Defence
Suwon FMC W
91
Gumi Sportstoto W
66
Momentum
Suwon FMC W
67
Gumi Sportstoto W
0
Danger (xG)
Suwon FMC W
1.35
Gumi Sportstoto W
0.00
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 1.73 xG for Suwon FMC W and 1.02 xG for Gumi Sportstoto W — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with Gumi Sportstoto W holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's strong attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 2.75 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. The xG distribution places the most weight on scorelines that clear 2.5, though the margin above the threshold is not large.

xG for (Suwon FMC W)
1.35
avg per match
xG for (Gumi Sportstoto W)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Suwon FMC W)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Gumi Sportstoto W)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Suwon FMC WSuwon FMC W
DW
Gumi Sportstoto WGumi Sportstoto W
LW

Probability breakdown

49% confidence
Suwon FMC W49%
Draw26%
Gumi Sportstoto W24%

Suwon FMC W leads with 49% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Suwon FMC W Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

Suwon FMC W take on Gumi Sportstoto W in WK-League.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.73 expected goals for Suwon FMC W against 1.02 for Gumi Sportstoto W — a clear advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Suwon FMC W's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 62% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk Gumi Sportstoto W have won 0 of their last 5 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Suwon FMC W carry the stronger underlying metrics, Gumi Sportstoto W's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Suwon FMC W are generating a clear xG advantage — 1.73 projected against 1.02 for Gumi Sportstoto W. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.71 is the clearest signal in the model that Suwon FMC W are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: The model's projection is based on averages — individual moments of quality, tactical adjustments, or set-piece situations can always override statistical trends. Suwon FMC W are favoured, but football rarely follows the script exactly.

Risk factors

  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Recent form

Suwon FMC W

Suwon FMC W

D
vs Hwacheon KSPO W
17 Jul 2026
00
W
@ Seoul W
1 Jul 2026
30
Gumi Sportstoto W

Gumi Sportstoto W

L
vs Boeun Sangmu W
10 Jul 2026
01
W
@ Boeun Sangmu
16 May 2026
21

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Suwon FMC W vs Gumi Sportstoto W?

GoalVio's model predicts Suwon FMC W to win with 49% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Suwon FMC W vs Gumi Sportstoto W?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Suwon FMC W vs Gumi Sportstoto W?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Suwon FMC W vs Gumi Sportstoto W?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more