GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 9/19/2023, 6:45:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Sutton Utd · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Sutton Utd are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.60 conceded, while Aston Villa U21 have no completed matches on record, with no goal data yet. Both teams scored in 3 of those 5 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Sutton Utd hold a 3.3-point power-rating edge (32.7 v 29.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.2% in the EFL Trophy, while Sutton Utd holds the strongest overall chance at 41% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 71% BTTS chance and 70% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Sutton Utd

Probability

41.2%

Model confidence

41.2%

Sutton Utd has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Sutton UtdLLLWL

GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Aston Villa U21No completed matches

GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00

BTTS 0/0O2.5 0/0
Sutton UtdAston Villa U21
22.2Attack66.7
44.4Defence0.0
22.2Form11.1
32.7Power29.5
1.95xG1.70
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