Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sutjeska 0-0 Mornar, with an exact score probability of 19%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sutjeska 1-0 Mornar
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.51 | 36.0% | 31.6% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.94 | 30.8% | 31.8% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.73 | 33.1% | 36.6% | 3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.9 pts
Projected Score
Sutjeska 0–0 Mornar
Exact score probability: 19%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.8%
Model confidence
36.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SutjeskaDWDLL
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
MornarWDWWD
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
SutjeskaMornar
0.0Attack41.7
100.0Defence70.4
33.3Form59.3
45.3Power59.3
0.73xG0.97