Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Surkhon are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (LDWWD), averaging 1.00 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Qizilqum are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LLLLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and the power ratings are near level at 41.3 against 42.2. Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.2% in the Super League, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 36% BTTS chance and 26% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
40.2%
Model confidence
40.2%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 3 · GA 10 · avg 0.60/2.00