Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Buxoro · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-1
Surkhon are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WDLLW), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Buxoro are 3W-2D-0L in their last 5 (WDWWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Buxoro hold a 17.1-point power-rating edge (41.3 v 58.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.8% in the Super League, while Buxoro holds the strongest overall chance at 51% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 37% BTTS chance and 32% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Buxoro
Probability
51.0%
Model confidence
16.8%
Buxoro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40