Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sur · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sur 1-3 Bahla
Original prediction
Sur
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.91 | 31.2% | 37.1% | 5.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.3% | 28.8% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.35 | 38.6% | 34.1% | -4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Sur
Probability
37.1%
Model confidence
37.1%
Sur has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SurLLDLD
GF 7 · GA 15 · avg 1.40/3.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
BahlaLLWWW
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
SurBahla
33.3Attack16.7
16.7Defence33.3
0.0Form0.0
21.5Power21.5
1.34xG1.12