Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Al-Shabab · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sur 2-3 Al-Shabab
Original prediction
Al-Shabab
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.79 | 23.9% | 34.7% | 10.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.5% | 28.6% | 0.0 pts |
| Away | 1.91 | 47.5% | 36.7% | -10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.91 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Al-Shabab
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
36.7%
Al-Shabab has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SurNo completed matches
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
BTTS 0/0O2.5 0/0
Al-ShababLWWW
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 2.25/1.75
BTTS 3/4O2.5 3/4
SurAl-Shabab
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24