Super Novavs
Riga
COMPLETEDLatvia · Virsliga · 9/15/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Riga · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-3 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Super Nova 0-1 Riga
Original prediction
Riga
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.54 | 9.4% | 9.8% | 0.4 pts |
| Draw | 5.74 | 15.7% | 16.4% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 1.20 | 74.9% | 73.8% | -1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.20 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–214%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–310%
Predicted outcome
Riga
Probability
73.8%
Model confidence
73.8%
Riga has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Super NovaWWDDL
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
RigaDDWLW
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
Super NovaRiga
34.5Attack96.6
54.8Defence65.5
41.7Form77.0
45.9Power77.5
0.70xG2.24