VirsligaVirsliga
Sunday, 21 June 2026Last updated 12:12
Super Nova

Super Nova

Home
W
02
Full time
Auda

Auda

Away
LLWL
Jana Skredela stadions
GoalVio prediction
44% confidence
Auda(44%)
Most likely exact score0-1
Prediction correct— Result: Auda
Win probability
Super Nova
29%
Draw
27%
Auda
44%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Super Nova
73
Auda
25
Defence
Super Nova
66
Auda
56
Momentum
Super Nova
100
Auda
25
Danger (xG)
Super Nova
1.80
Auda
0.68
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 0.97 xG for Super Nova and 1.63 xG for Auda. Super Nova's projected xG of 0.97 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 0-1 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Auda's defensive record — 5 clean sheets in 10 matches — combined with Super Nova's limited attacking output (2 clean sheets conceded in 10 games) supports the model's projection of at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.61 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 0-1 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.The defensive profiles of both sides are stronger than their attacking counterparts — Super Nova's Defensive Stability (66) and Auda's (56) both suggest teams capable of limiting the opposition. When both defences are this organised, the model expects a lower-scoring environment.

xG for (Super Nova)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Auda)
0.68
avg per match
xG against (Super Nova)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Auda)
1.13
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Super NovaSuper Nova
WLLWD
AudaAuda
LLWLL

Probability breakdown

44% confidence
Super Nova29%
Draw27%
Auda44%

Auda leads with 44% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Auda Backed to Win — Model Projects 0-1

Super Nova host Auda in Virsliga. Super Nova have recorded LLWLWW in recent matches while Auda arrive with a run of DLDWWW. These sides have met 10 times recently, averaging 2.3 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.63 expected goals for Auda against 0.97 for Super Nova — a clear advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🔒 Defensive Stability Auda have kept 5 clean sheet(s) in 10 recent matches — a defensive record that gives them a meaningful edge in this fixture. Defensive solidity is one of the strongest predictors of match outcomes at this level.
: 🔄 Head-to-Head Record Auda have won 9 of the last 10 meetings between these sides — a historically dominant record that the model treats as a meaningful signal when the underlying stats are otherwise close.

Why GoalVio backs this

Auda have won 9 of the last 10 meetings between these sides. Historical head-to-head dominance captures tactical matchup advantages that aggregate stats can miss — when one team consistently finds ways to beat the same opponent, that pattern is a meaningful signal in its own right.

Biggest risk: Super Nova have won 3 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If Super Nova carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.

Risk factors

  • Super Nova are in decent form with 3 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Head to head

Super Nova 0Draws 01 Auda
Avg goals: 2.0
21 Jun 2026
Super Nova
L02
Auda

Recent form

Super Nova

Super Nova

W
@ Tukums
1 Jul 2026
21
L
vs FS Jelgava
25 Jun 2026
15
L
vs Auda
21 Jun 2026
02
W
vs Ogre United
16 May 2026
31
D
vs Tukums
11 May 2026
11
Auda

Auda

L
vs Riga
29 Jun 2026
02
L
@ Grobiņa
25 Jun 2026
01
W
@ Super Nova
21 Jun 2026
20
L
vs Rīgas FS
17 May 2026
03
L
@ Riga
12 May 2026
14

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Super Nova vs Auda?

GoalVio's model predicts Auda to win with 44% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Super Nova vs Auda?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 0-1.

Will both teams score in Super Nova vs Auda?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Super Nova vs Auda?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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