Sunshine Georgiesvs
South Melbourne
COMPLETEDAustralia · Victoria NPL · 8/29/2026, 5:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
South Melbourne · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sunshine Georgies 1-0 South Melbourne
Original prediction
South Melbourne
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:53 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.69 | 24.5% | 35.3% | 10.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.61 | 25.1% | 24.3% | -0.8 pts |
| Away | 1.79 | 50.4% | 40.4% | -10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
South Melbourne
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
South Melbourne has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 11 · GA 6 · avg 2.20/1.20