Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sunnersta · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-0 (14%), 2-0 (13%), 4-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sunnersta 6-0 Lidingö
Original prediction
Sunnersta
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 05:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.17 | 76.8% | 68.6% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 6.03 | 14.9% | 17.7% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 10.92 | 8.3% | 13.7% | 5.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–014%
- 2.2–013%
- 3.4–012%
Predicted outcome
Sunnersta
Probability
68.6%
Model confidence
68.6%
Sunnersta has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SunnerstaWWLDL
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
LidingöWWLLL
GF 7 · GA 10 · avg 1.40/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
SunnerstaLidingö
77.3Attack39.4
71.2Defence40.9
71.2Form30.3
71.9Power39.0
3.32xG0.59