Sunderlandvs
Crewe
COMPLETEDEngland · League Cup · 8/8/2023, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sunderland · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Sunderland are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LLDWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 2.40 conceded, while Crewe are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DLWLW), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 9 of those 10 games and 9 passed 2.5 goals, and Crewe hold a 3.0-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 48.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.5% in the League Cup, while Sunderland holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 52% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Sunderland
Probability
36.5%
Model confidence
36.5%
Sunderland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40