Sunderlandvs
AZ Alkmaar
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Europa League · 9/16/2026, 7:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sunderland · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sunderland 1-0 AZ Alkmaar
Original prediction
Sunderland
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 18:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 61.1% | 43.0% | -18.0 pts |
| Draw | 4.27 | 22.3% | 26.2% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 5.69 | 16.7% | 30.8% | 14.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.56 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-18.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Sunderland
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Sunderland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 15 · GA 6 · avg 3.00/1.20