Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Holstebro · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 1-3 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sundby 2-0 Holstebro
Original prediction
Holstebro
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 37.5% | 28.3% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.49 | 25.8% | 21.4% | -4.4 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 36.8% | 50.3% | 13.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.1–37%
Predicted outcome
Holstebro
Probability
50.3%
Model confidence
50.3%
Holstebro has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SundbyLLWLW
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
HolstebroWLLWW
GF 10 · GA 9 · avg 2.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
SundbyHolstebro
42.9Attack71.4
28.6Defence38.1
19.0Form61.9
33.5Power57.6
1.57xG2.53