Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
SUMU · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
SUMU are 1W-1D-2L in their last 4 (LDLW), averaging 2.75 scored and 3.25 conceded, while EPS are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWLW), averaging 2.00 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 9 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and SUMU hold a 3.1-point power-rating edge (45.3 v 42.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 44.2% in the Suomen Cup, while SUMU holds the strongest overall chance at 44% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 78% BTTS chance and 81% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
SUMU
Probability
44.2%
Model confidence
44.2%
SUMU has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 13 · avg 2.75/3.25
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80