Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sumqayıt 0-0 Qabala, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sumqayıt 4-1 Qabala
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.39 | 37.9% | 35.6% | -2.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 30.1% | 30.1% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.82 | 32.1% | 34.2% | 2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.1 pts
Projected Score
Sumqayıt 0–0 Qabala
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
30.1%
Model confidence
35.6%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SumqayıtDDLLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
QabalaLLWDL
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
SumqayıtQabala
26.7Attack13.3
46.7Defence60.0
13.3Form26.7
32.2Power36.3
0.98xG0.98