Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sumqayıt · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sumqayıt 2-1 Araz
Original prediction
Sumqayıt
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.2% | 54.7% | 13.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.3% | 24.1% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 2.96 | 30.4% | 21.2% | -9.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Sumqayıt
Probability
54.7%
Model confidence
54.7%
Sumqayıt has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SumqayıtWDDLL
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
ArazLLDLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SumqayıtAraz
44.4Attack23.8
50.0Defence28.6
27.8Form9.5
41.6Power23.7
1.94xG0.80