Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sumqayıt · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Sumqayıt 0-0 Şamaxı FK, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Sumqayıt 1-1 Şamaxı FK
Original prediction
Sumqayıt
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 35.0% | 38.1% | 3.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.93 | 30.8% | 30.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.63 | 34.3% | 31.3% | -3.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.93 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Projected Score
Sumqayıt 0–0 Şamaxı FK
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Sumqayıt
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Sumqayıt has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SumqayıtLLLLL
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Şamaxı FKWDDLL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
SumqayıtŞamaxı FK
16.7Attack30.5
50.0Defence57.1
0.0Form34.3
26.7Power43.0
1.08xG0.83