Suduva Marijampolevs
Kauno Žalgiris
COMPLETEDLithuania · A Lyga · 10/19/2026, 3:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Kauno Žalgiris · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Suduva Marijampole 0-1 Kauno Žalgiris, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Suduva Marijampole 0-1 Kauno Žalgiris
Original prediction
Kauno Žalgiris
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.72 | 24.1% | 24.9% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 28.4% | 27.8% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.89 | 47.4% | 47.3% | -0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.1 pts
Projected Score
Suduva Marijampole 0–1 Kauno Žalgiris
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Kauno Žalgiris
Probability
47.3%
Model confidence
47.3%
Kauno Žalgiris has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 15 · avg 0.40/3.00
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40