Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sudan · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (12%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Sudan 1-0 Ethiopia
Original prediction
Sudan
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.81 | 50.2% | 42.6% | -7.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.14 | 29.0% | 28.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 4.37 | 20.8% | 28.7% | 7.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–012%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Sudan
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Sudan has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SudanDLDLW
GF 2 · GA 4 · avg 0.40/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
EthiopiaDWWWW
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SudanEthiopia
25.0Attack41.7
58.3Defence41.7
50.0Form25.0
47.5Power37.8
1.24xG1.00