Suchitepéquezvs
Guastatoya
COMPLETEDGuatemala · Liga Nacional · 9/10/2026, 2:10:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guastatoya · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Suchitepéquez 1-1 Guastatoya
Original prediction
Guastatoya
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.18 | 41.4% | 32.6% | -8.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.76 | 32.8% | 29.4% | -3.4 pts |
| Away | 3.49 | 25.8% | 38.0% | 12.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.76 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Guastatoya
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Guastatoya has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60