Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Subiza · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Subiza 2-0 Cirbonero
Original prediction
Subiza
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 September 2026 at 00:40 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.65 | 54.6% | 42.3% | -12.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.55 | 25.4% | 27.9% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 4.53 | 19.9% | 29.8% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.65 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-12.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Subiza
Probability
42.3%
Model confidence
42.3%
Subiza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
SubizaLWWD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.25
BTTS 2/4O2.5 1/4
CirboneroNo completed matches
GF 0 · GA 0 · avg 0.00/0.00
BTTS 0/0O2.5 0/0
SubizaCirbonero
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.46xG1.24